Manchester City are still awaiting a verdict in their 115 charges case involving the Premier League but a significant points deduction has been pinpointed as the logical punishment if they are found guilty.
City were accused of the serious breaches by the Premier League back in February 2023 and a 10-week hearing took place in September 2024.
However, despite it being wrapped up in December 2024, the outcome from the three-person Independent Commission panel has still not been disclosed.
Kieran Maguire, a football finance expert, has been a regular voice consulted for his view on the situation and on a recent appearance on The Overlap, claimed that there are “probably about half a million pieces of evidence that were presented by both the prosecution and the defence”.
He also stated that after 14 months of waiting, “we’re probably into the final reaches of getting a decision” and predicted that City, who strenuously deny all charges, could likely have a maximum of 60 points deducted if they were found guilty.
His opinion was based off the punishments previously handed to Everton and Nottingham Forest over a smaller period.
“The Premier League cannot relegate Manchester City to League One or League Two because that is an EFL decision and Manchester City have not had any charges proven against them by the EFL,” he stated.
“Therefore, it has to be a points deduction. If we take a look at precedence, we have had Everton and Nottingham Forest with six and four-point deductions for a single offence covering a three-year period. The accusations against Manchester City cover a nine-year period, so it is far bigger.
“The numbers involved we are not certain about but they are likely to be quite significant.
“I think you have to add a zero to what we’ve seen in terms of Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would be, on merit to be consistent with what we’ve seen with other decisions, would make a lot of logic.”
The points deduction, if enforced, would have a seismic impact on English football and bring about huge changes to the Premier League table.
Currently on 56 points after 28 games, if such a deduction happened right now then the Blues would end up on -4 and at the foot of the table.
That would mean Arsenal would be 10 points clear at the top of the table, with Aston Villa their closest challengers.
Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool would each move up a place and both Brentford and Bournemouth would benefit and be on course for a European spot.
Bottom club Wolves would move from 20th but would still only be 14 clear of City.
West Ham would move out of the relegation zone and 29 points ahead of City, who would require winning all 11 remaining games as well as hoping the Hammer do not take more than four points between now and the end of the campaign.