Such is the prevalence of technological authority in the modern world, the abstract concept of a predictive statistical model being presented to Premier League managers as a genuine topic of discussion is no longer a fantasy confined to fan forums.
Heading into this weekend’s fixtures, Opta’s predictions were put directly to Chelsea boss Liam Rosenior. Despite a progressive approach to management, the 41-year-old wasn’t entirely convinced by the grandly named device plotting his club’s downfall. “I’d love to see what this supercomputer looks like!” he scoffed.
The Blues manager may not want to take a glance at the latest musings spat out by the aforementioned machine after his Chelsea side were beaten 2–1 by Arsenal on Sunday. Mikel Arteta, by contrast, could be inclined to frame the current figures.
Arteta’s mood was obvious but he let everyone know anyway: He was “ery, very happy.” Arsenal were far from their dominant best in a narrow victory over a Chelsea side reduced to 10 men yet the result was all important for the league leaders, who are once again five points clear of Manchester City.
Opta consider the table-toppers to remain above the chasing pack by the end of May in 82.71% of the potential scenarios, a staggering level of confidence not entirely explained by the issues which have dogged Arsenal as of late. A tendency to concede swiftly after scoring and a chronic lack of open-play attacking edge have all been overlooked by the cold logic of the supercomputer. Patrick Vieira isn’t so convinced.
“When you are top of the Champions League and Premier League table, you expect Arsenal to go forward,” the three-time English top-flight champion sniffed postgame. “It was difficult for Arsenal to take chances. The expectation is higher, you expect more from Arsenal.”
Expectations for any Manchester City title celebrations this summer are not high in the eyes of Opta. Pep Guardiola’s side can close the gap to just a pair of points if they win their game in hand and still have to host Arsenal in April, yet they are given only a 17.25% chance of winning what has definitively become a two-horse race.
Intriguingly, Guardiola isn’t even openly targeting the ultimate glory. “It’s important to make a real step to qualify for the Champions League next season,” the City coach insisted after Saturday’s victory over Leeds United. “It’s the main, main target for the club.”
That particular quest is practically sewn up—City are given a 99.92% chance of qualifying—but the race for Europe’s premier club competition elsewhere is devilishly enticing.
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Aston Villa may have slipped down to fourth following their shock defeat to rock-bottom Wolverhampton Wanderers on Friday night but they remain the side most likely to finish in the top five alongside Arsenal and City in the eyes of the supercomputer. Villa boss Unai Emery has a different take.
“They [Manchester United and Chelsea] are favorites [for Champions League] because of the strength they have,” the Basque coach lamented. “We are there at the moment, but normally they are favorites.”
Manchester United justified that status with another win under Michael Carrick against Crystal Palace on Sunday to creep above Villa in the actual table on goal difference. The Red Devils have won six of seven games since the former midfielder’s appointment and are still given a non-zero chance of winning the league, let alone merely qualifying for Europe. Yet, Bruno Fernandes is keen to guard against complacency.
“There are a lot of games to go still, and it is important that we don’t feel that we are in the position that we need to be,” the talismanic skipper warned. “We need to make as many points as we can.”
Chelsea are very much not in the position they need to be. Trailing fifth-placed Liverpool by three points, while six adrift of Villa and United, the Blues have their work cut out if they are to scramble their way back into Europe’s elite.
Rosenior’s personal vendetta against the supercomputer has a simple resolution by his own reckoning: cut out the same two mistakes which have dogged them all season; defending set pieces and ill-discipline.