The Indianapolis Colts are staring down yet another massive offseason in the Chris Ballard era. With needs all over the roster, including question marks at quarterback, the Colts can’t afford to keep with the same status quo heading into 2025.
Changes are needed, and I think, for the most part, changes are coming to this roster. Here are some of my thoughts, insights, and gut feelings about how the free agency period could go for the Colts this offseason.
Internal Free Agents
The Colts have an unusually large crop of free agents this offseason, with 18 players set to be unrestricted and another three players set to be restricted. Even if the Colts end up bringing back a few players to be camp bodies/special teams players, this team should look quite different heading into 2025.
Starting with the big name internal free agents, it seems increasingly unlikely that either Dayo Odeyingbo or Julian Blackmon will be back with the team. The Colts would like to bring Odeyingbo back, but his market is expected to get to a point that the Colts likely aren’t willing to go to. Plus, Odeyingbo was a role player for his four years in Indy and may want a fresh start with a team willing to start him going forward.
Veterans EJ Speed and Ryan Kelly also feel unlikely to return, albeit the door isn’t quite as closed in their cases. Speed could certainly be an option if the Colts strike out finding an upgrade on the open market and Kelly could be in play to return as a fallback option to their offensive line shuffling this offseason. So, while the door is still cracked open for both players, it does seem unlikely that either is back as well.
Speaking of the offensive line, the Colts have so many moving parts in the trenches. My feel is that the Colts do want Will Fries back, but they won’t go above and beyond to keep him if his market gets out of hand. My assumption is that the Colts have already made their offer, Fries will hit the tampering period with that in hand, and the two sides will reconvene later. Re-signing Fries is what the Colts want to do, but there is still a world where he leaves if another team gives him a massive offer.
What happens with Fries could have a massive implication on how the team deals with Braden Smith. Ballard implied that the team won’t be bringing back Smith at his current cap hit next season, so a restructure or renegotiation could be in play for the veteran right tackle. If they can’t come to terms on a new deal, then Smith could absolutely be a cap casualty this offseason.
If I had to guess how this all plays out, the Colts know that they just need to bring back one of Fries, Kelly, or Smith this offseason. The top option is re-signing Fries with the second option being to renegotiate with Smith and the final fallback being re-signing Kelly. The Colts have options to play with, but I would be shocked if more than one of the trio is back in Indy next season.
Aside from that, the rest of the Colts’ free agents are completely up in the air. The team loves Mo Alie-Cox and Ashton Dulin, but both players might want a fresh start elsewhere. The same could be said about linebacker Grant Stuard as well. The only prediction I feel relatively confident making is that Trey Sermon probably won’t be back, but we’ll see with “we like our guys” Ballard.
The Quarterback Carousel
The Colts will once again be riding the quarterback carousel this offseason, albeit in a slightly different fashion than in years past. The Colts are looking to bring in “competition” for Anthony Richardson, and they have been linked to several names hitting the open market. Let’s dive into a few of those names now.
There has been a bit of buzz surrounding Sam Darnold and the Colts since the combine. Personally, I’m just not buying this rumor. Darnold isn’t signing anywhere to be competition and the Colts don’t have the resources to invest $30-plus million per year in a quarterback. Unless the Colts are 100% ready to jump ship on the Richardson project, pursuing a player like Darnold just doesn’t make sense.
The same could be said for Justin Fields. Fields likely won’t get paid as much as Darnold, but he still should have plenty of suitors lining up to give him a starting job. The Colts simply can’t compete with teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers or the New York Jets in this regard unless they are willing to completely close the book on Richardson.
The most believable option being floated around is Daniel Jones. The former sixth-overall pick should be much cheaper than the aforementioned options, and he likely won’t be looking for a guaranteed starting job. I can bemoan all I want about how much I don’t want this to happen, but it does seem like one of the more likely options for the Colts (please save us, Cleveland).
After Jones, the quarterback options become slim this offseason. The names I’ve heard floated around are Trey Lance, Jameis Winston, and Jacoby Brissett as potential backups. Those three may not inspire any confidence, but that’s simply the nature of the quarterback position in the NFL. At least these guys would be cheap, which is a positive in itself.
Free Agency Plan
Contrary to popular belief, I’m buying this being an active free agency period for the Colts…. somewhat. I don’t expect the Colts to be heavy players in free agency, but they need to bring in veterans to supplement this roster. Lou Anarumo’s defense will fail if the Colts don’t bring in at least a few veterans, and I think that Chris Ballard knows that.
I expect the Colts to be heavy players in the defensive back market this offseason. Charvarius Ward will likely be their top option at corner, given his perfect fit in this scheme and his friendship with Samuel Womack. If they strike out on Ward, they could pivot to other options, such as Brandon Stephens, Paulson Adebo, or Kristian Fulton.
Safety is in a similar vein, although I’m not sure they aim as high at the position. While I feel very confident that they will at least call about Ward, I’m not as sure that they will pursue big names like Jevon Holland or Tre’von Moehrig. The Colts may swing a bit lower on a player like Andre Cisco, Camryn Bynum, or Justin Reid. I’m not as confident that the Colts sign a safety as I am with them signing a cornerback, but I expect them to be active at this position.
Most of the Colts’ money should be poured into defensive back, but there are a few other names/positions to make a note of as well. The Colts likely aren’t looking too heavily into the edge market, but we can never count Ballard out when it comes to upgrading the trenches. He swung hard for Danielle Hunter last offseason, so I wouldn’t be shocked to hear him involved for a player like Josh Sweat on the open market.
The Colts could also be active in grabbing veteran Cincinnati players who loved playing under Anarumo. Anarumo’s system is vastly different than what the Colts have deployed in years past, so grabbing a few vets who know the ropes could be beneficial. Akeem Davis-Gaither, Sheldon Rankins, Jay Tufele, and Vonn Bell are names to watch here.
Finally, I wouldn’t rule out some sort of depth offensive line signing for the team either. The Colts aren’t high on Blake Freeland internally, so a swing tackle is certainly a need this offseason. Cornelius Lucas, Chuma Edoga, and Matt Peart make some sense here.