The Premier League title race is hotting up, with leaders Arsenal facing fierce competition from Manchester City as we enter the final few months of a gripping 2025-26 campaign.
At the time of writing, Mikel Arteta’s side have spent 147 days at the Premier League summit, but a run of just two victories in their last seven games has allowed Pep Guardiola’s men to reduce the gap between the two clubs.
In fact, the title race is now back in Man City’s hands, less than a fortnight after they were at risk of slipping nine points behind Arsenal with the same number of games played.
Back-to-back draws with Brentford (1-1) and Wolves (2-2), letting a two-goal lead slip against the latter on Wednesday, has exposed signs of both technical and mental fragility in Arsenal’s side at an important stage in their season.
Meanwhile, successive wins for Man City away against reigning champions Liverpool (3-1) and at home to Fulham (3-0) have moved them to within five points of the top with a game in hand.
A crucial encounter between the two clubs at the Etihad Stadium in mid-April ensures that Arsenal’s fate also remains in their own hands, and this intriguing fixture could prove to be a title decider.
The big question on everyone’s lips is who will go on to lift the Premier League trophy? Here, Sports Mole has asked AI to simulate the rest of the season, game-by-game, to determine whether Arsenal or Man City will emerge victorious.
AI predicts Premier League end-of-season table: Man City pip Arsenal by one point to win title
The simulated AI model envisions a thrilling finale and has boldly predicted that Arsenal and Man City will string together strong runs of form heading down the home straight, but it will by Guardiola’s men who pip the Gunners to the post and clinch the title by just one point.
Man City are forecast to win their next four Premier League games, starting off with a eventful 3-2 triumph at home to Newcastle United this weekend, before getting the better of bottom-half trio Leeds United, Nottingham Forest and West Ham United.
Victory over Newcastle moves City to within two points of Arsenal, who are forced to play out a frustrating 1-1 draw in the North London derby with Igor Tudor’s Tottenham Hotspur this weekend. However, the Gunners respond by winning their next three games in March against Chelsea, Brighton & Hove Albion and Everton to move three points clear at the top.
Man City kick-start April by dropping two points in a 1-1 draw at Chelsea, allowing Arsenal to increase their lead at the summit to five points with a 2-1 home victory over Bournemouth. However, April 18 proves to be a defining day in the campaign for both clubs.
The eagerly-anticipated title decider between Man City and Arsenal at the Etihad is predicted to finish 3-1 in City’s favour, pushing them just two points behind the Gunners with, crucially, a game in hand.
Man City’s game in hand is a home fixture against Crystal Palace which is yet to be rearranged. Nevertheless, AI has predicted the Citizens to win 3-0 at the Etihad, which would see Guardiola’s side move one point clear at the top of the table, should the game be played after their win over Arsenal.
In years gone by, Man City have built a reputation for putting together winning runs at the business end of the season en route to lifting silverware. AI has predicted the Citizens to product another mini trademark run, forecasting victories in each of their final five matches against Burnley, Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth and Aston Villa, including a decisive 2-1 win at home to Villa on the final day to clinch the title.
Arsenal push Man City close, as they also win each of their remaining five league games against Newcastle, Fulham, West Ham, Burnley and Crystal Palace, but for the fourth season running, Arteta’s side are forced to settle for second place.
Arsenal’s simulated Premier League results (final 11 games)
Feb 22 | Tottenham (A) | 1-1 draw
Mar 01 | Chelsea (H) | 2-1 win
Mar 04 | Brighton (A) | 2-1 win
Mar 15 | Everton (H) | 2-0 win
Apr 11 | Bournemouth (H) | 2-1 win
Apr 18 | Man City (A) | 3-1 defeat
Apr 25 | Newcastle (H) | 2-0 win
May 02 | Fulham (H) | 3-1 win
May 09 | West Ham (A) | 1-0 win
May 17 | Burnley (H) | 3-0 win
May 24 | Crystal Palace (A) | 2-1 win
Man City’s simulated Premier League results (final 12 games)
Feb 21 | Newcastle (H) | 3-2 win
Feb 28 | Leeds (A) | 3-1 win
Mar 04 | Nottingham Forest (H) | 3-0 win
Mar 14 | West Ham (A) | 2-0 win
Apr 11 | Chelsea (A) | 1-1 draw
Apr 18 | Arsenal (H) | 3-1 win
Apr 25 | Burnley (A) | 2-0 win
May 02 | Everton (A) | 2-1 win
May 09 | Brentford (H) | 4-0 win
May 17 | Bournemouth (A) | 3-0 win
May 24 | Aston Villa (H) | 2-1 win
TBC | Crystal Palace (H) | 3-0 win