Drawing upon his experience of numerous Premier League title challenges with Manchester United under Sir Alex Ferguson, Andrew Cole has taken to often repeating a line parroted by the legendary manager: “The season doesn’t get started until Easter.”
Neither Arsenal nor Manchester City will play another Premier League game until after all the chocolate eggs have been found, thereby bringing an end to all the fussy preliminary work in the eyes of Cole. From here on out, this is where the real business takes place.
Yet, to many onlookers outside Ferguson’s sphere of influence, it appears as though plenty of important matters have already been logged and recorded.
This weekend felt particularly significant across the full length of the Premier League table. While Arsenal pulled further clear of Manchester City, Cole’s former employers Manchester United opened up some breathing room in the battle for Champions League qualification.
Even Tottenham Hotspur ended their losing streak to offer another twist in the increasingly intriguing relegation scrap.
The season may not have actually started yet in the eyes of some, but Opta’s supercomputer has been able to offer some pretty confident predictions about how the campaign will look when everyone agrees that it has actually concluded.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Winner
Heading into Saturday’s fixtures, Pep Guardiola warned that any slip up for Manchester City against West Ham United would be catastrophic to their Premier League title tilt. “Now it’s West Ham that defines the Premier League,” the Catalan boss declared. “Now we go there knowing that if we drop points, it will be over.”
City duly dropped two points in a toothless 1–1 draw yet Guardiola insisted: “It’s not over.”
That stance is entirely justified. The gap which currently stands at nine points after Arsenal’s dramatic 2–0 victory over Everton inspired by the record-breaking feats of Max Dowman isn’t as solid as it may appear. If City win their game in hand and defeat the Gunners at the Etihad in April, they would be within one victory of once again reeling in Mikel Arteta’s side. However, the supercomputer isn’t as optimistic as Guardiola.
Arsenal are given a staggering 97.46% chance of winning their first title since 2004, five years before their game-changer against Everton was born. That swollen percentage appears to overlook the nervous energy and lack of ingenuity which has permeated most Arsenal matches since the turn of the year, yet it shows how little Opta’s statistical model thinks of City.
Guardiola himself has discussed the difficulty he faces in finding the right balance in his starting lineups, which is a problem that has afflicted his former assistant as well. Yet, while Arteta has been able to rely upon the impact of his bench—Arsenal’s Premier League substitutes have more direct goal contributions between them than any other club—City’s replacements have been painfully lacking. Only one substitute has scored for the Sky Blues in the Premier League this season: Rayan Cherki back on the opening weekend in August.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Race
Dominik Szoboszlai captured the angst of an Anfield crowd which greeted Liverpool’s 1–1 draw against Tottenham on Sunday with a chorus of boos. “We have to wake up because if we carry on like this, we should be happy with the Conference League,” the midfielder fumed.
According to Opta’s model, Liverpool are still expected to sneak into the Champions League places, which—despite the flood of hasty opinion pieces lamenting the Premier League’s demise in Europe—is still expected to be the top five. However, more performances as limp and listless as their showing against Spurs and Szoboszlai’s fears may be realized.
Chelsea certainly didn’t cover themselves in glory during a disappointing 1–0 reverse at home to Newcastle United on Saturday. Of the 22 shots Liam Rosenior’s side rattled off, only three were on target. Having enjoyed a winning start to life under Enzo Maresca’s replacement, the Blues have claimed just one win in their last five top-flight fixtures, seeing them tumble down to sixth place, one point behind Liverpool.
Manchester United, in stark contrast, can now boast a three-point cushion in the division’s top three following a convincing 3–1 win over Aston Villa on Sunday afternoon. Michael Carrick’s rejuvenated side are almost as close to City in second (seven points) as they are to Chelsea in sixth (six points).
“We are in a good position at the moment,” Carrick cautiously admitted, “but still a lot to play for.”