The Champions League round of 16 gave us only one tie that went to extra time, and none were decided by one goal.
Bayern advanced with an eight-goal advantage over Atalanta, PSG won by a combined six over Chelsea, and even the ties that were undecided after the first leg produced second-leg blowouts — Barcelona 7-2 Newcastle, Sporting CP 5-0 Bodo/Glimt, and Liverpool 4-0 Galatasaray.
The drama may have been lacking, but wow, were we given a huge quartet of quarterfinals.
We get a revenge attempt for Liverpool against PSG, we get another two matches in maybe the most entertaining series of the last year or so (Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid), and we get royalty versus royalty (Bayern vs. Real Madrid). Plus, we get to find out if Arsenal can grind its way past a Sporting CP team that has proven it can win with either all-out suffer-ball, or 90 minutes of full-on pressure.
And so, with the round of 16 still looming in the rearview, let’s look ahead to April’s quarterfinals.
The last time Arsenal and Sporting played, in November 2024, Joao Pereira had just taken over as Miguel Amorim’s Sporting replacement, and things didn’t go particularly well for the home team. Arsenal got goals from five different players and left Lisbon with a 5-1 win. Pereira lasted only about six weeks on the job, but under Rui Borges, they’ve put together a remarkable Champions League campaign. Unfortunately for them, Arsenal have been even more brilliant.
Current Opta world rankings and title odds: No. 1 Arsenal (30.0%), No. 14 Sporting (3.3%)
How Arsenal advanced: By remembering what they’re best at. After an overly cautious road leg — not the first of those that Arsenal have experienced under Mikel Arteta — the Gunners shifted into domination mode at home against Bayer Leverkusen in the second leg of the round of 16. They won 2-0 to secure a cumulative 3-1 victory.
They didn’t create a ton of great chances on Tuesday (only two of their 21 shot attempts were worth over 0.2 xG), but a thunderous strike from Eberechi Eze put them ahead in the 36th minute, Declan Rice added a second in the 60th, and Bayer Leverkusen were never going to generate enough of a threat to come back.
Even with the early conservatism, Arsenal attempted 27 shots worth 3.4 xG over the 180 minutes, while Leverkusen attempted 19 worth 1.5. The actual result matched up pretty closely.
How Sporting advanced: By turning up the volume. After a meek 3-0 defeat at Bodo/Glimt in the Round of 16, first leg, Sporting had no choice but to go pedal-to-the-metal in the second leg at home. Rui Borges’ squad was able to maintain a full-throttle approach over most of 90 minutes, attempting 34 shots to Bodo/Glimt’s six in regulation and scoring in the 34th, 61st and 78th minutes to tie things up.
Maxi Araujo scored just two minutes into extra time, too, and Sporting were finally able to ease off the throttle a bit. They prevented any serious comeback attempts over the next 28 minutes and put the tie away with a Rafael Nel goal in stoppage time. It was as steady a three-goal comeback as you’ll see.
Why Arsenal will win: Because they’re the best team in Europe. At some point, I might need to come up with another stock line to always deliver when talking about the Gunners, but this one’s still accurate. Premier League teams may have struggled a bit in the round of 16, and Arteta’s ever-cautious tendencies created 90 tedious minutes in Leverkusen and forced them to play well at home. But they still handled their business with little drama, which has been the case since the start of the campaign.
Arsenal have now won nine of their 10 Champions League matches with one draw. They’re fourth in goals scored per game (2.6), and they’re first in goals allowed (0.5). They have the third-best scoring margin in the competition on set pieces (+0.4 goals per match), but despite their reputation, they’re tied with Bayern for the best open-play scoring margin (+1.6).
We don’t really know what will happen if someone’s able to hit them a couple of times early on and force them to play from behind; the last time they were more than one goal down in a match, after all, was last May against Liverpool. (They did come back to tie that match, for what that’s worth.)
We saw an overly cautious Arsenal forced to penalties two years ago in order to eliminate Porto after losing the first leg, and Sporting can hope for a similar scenario this time around, but you have to squint to find any sort of major weakness in their play this year.
Why Sporting will win: They can keep this close and tense. Sporting’s all-out attack against Bodo/Glimt was incredibly impressive, but they’ve gotten to this stage primarily because of a defense that gives you absolutely nothing. They rank second in the Champions League in xG allowed per shot (0.12), and they’ve kept at least two defenders between shot and goal on 81.8% of opponent’s shots, most of any quarterfinalist.
If they can hunker down, block shots and counterattack, they’re in their happy place, and if they can simply get a moment or two of magic from Trincao or Luis “Not That One” Suarez — the two have combined for nine goals and five assists from 25 chances created in the Champions League — they could have the Emirates crowd awfully nervous well into the second leg.
Prediction: Arsenal 4, Sporting 1. There’s a path to a Sporting upset, but Arsenal’s whole thing is that they create so many paths for themselves.