With just five matches left in the 2025/26 Premier League season, the title race between Arsenal and Manchester City has reached a dramatic and defining stage.
According to Opta’s supercomputer, this final stretch is expected to be decisive—but crucially, the model still backs Arsenal to emerge as champions.
Supercomputer Prediction: Arsenal Still Favoured
Despite recent twists in the race, the supercomputer continues to give Arsenal a significant edge. Current projections place Arsenal’s title chances at around 73%, compared to roughly 27% for Manchester City .
This is remarkable given that both teams are level on points and separated only by fine margins such as goals scored and goal difference . The data suggests that while Manchester City’s recent surge has tightened the race, Arsenal’s overall consistency and favourable run-in still tilt the balance in their favour.
Arsenal’s Final Five Games (Supercomputer Outlook)
As shown above, Arsenal’s remaining fixtures are considered relatively favourable. They face:
- Newcastle United (H)
- Fulham (H)
- West Ham United (A)
- Burnley (H)
- Crystal Palace (A)
Statistical models highlight that most of these opponents are either mid-table or struggling sides, giving Arsenal a strong probability of winning the majority—if not all—of these matches .
Predicted results (supercomputer trend):
- Arsenal vs Newcastle – Win
- Arsenal vs Fulham – Win
- West Ham vs Arsenal – Win
- Arsenal vs Burnley – Win
- Crystal Palace vs Arsenal – Draw/Win
The expectation is that Arsenal could finish the season with a near-perfect run, potentially securing 12–15 points from 15 available.
Manchester City’s Final Five Games (Supercomputer Outlook)
Manchester City, meanwhile, face a more demanding run-in:
- Everton
- Brentford
- Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace
- Aston Villa
While City are capable of winning every game, the supercomputer identifies these fixtures—especially against teams like Aston Villa and Brentford—as potential stumbling blocks.
Predicted results (supercomputer trend):
- Man City vs Everton – Win
- Brentford vs Man City – Draw
- Man City vs Bournemouth – Win
- Crystal Palace vs Man City – Win
- Man City vs Aston Villa – Draw/Win
Even a couple of dropped points could prove decisive in such a tight race.
Why Arsenal Are Predicted to Win the Title
The supercomputer’s confidence in Arsenal comes down to three key factors:
1. Easier Fixtures
Arsenal’s remaining opponents are statistically weaker, increasing their win probability compared to City’s tougher schedule .
2. Consistency Over the Season
Despite recent setbacks, Arsenal have maintained a strong points tally and performance level across the campaign.
3. Title-Control Scenario
Even if both teams win most of their games, Arsenal are projected to edge it—either on points or goal difference .
Projected Final Outcome
Based on simulations:
- Arsenal: ~82–85 points
- Manchester City: ~80–83 points
In many scenarios, Arsenal finish just ahead—sometimes by as little as one or two points, underlining how tight the race is expected to be.
Final Verdict
The supercomputer doesn’t dismiss Manchester City—far from it. In fact, if Pep Guardiola’s side win all five matches, they could still take the title. But the probabilities tell a clear story:
Arsenal remain the most likely champions.
After years of near-misses, the data suggests this could finally be the season where Arsenal hold their nerve, capitalize on a favourable run-in, and lift the Premier League trophy ahead of their fiercest rivals.