When the draw was made for the latter stages of the Champions League, Arsenal were considered big favourites to reach the semis before things would get trickier with a likely meeting against Barcelona.
But while the Gunners kept up their end of the bargain, that Barca semi-final showdown failed to emerge after the Catalans were shocked 3-2 on aggregate by La Liga rivals Atletico Madrid.
Arsenal hammered Atleti 4-0 at the Emirates in the group stage so the door to the final in Budapest looks wide open for Mikel Arteta’s side. Then again, anyone writing off Diego Simeone’s men does so at their peril and that one-sided meeting in London back in October could prove meaningless.
Atletico Madrid v Arsenal kick-off time
Atletico Madrid v Arsenal kicks off at 8pm BST on Wednesday, April 29 at the Wanda Metropolitano.
Atletico Madrid v Arsenal how to watch
The first leg will be shown live in the UK via TNT Sports 1 and HBO Max, with coverage starting from 7pm.
BBC Radio 5 Live and TalkSPORT will both provide full match commentary.
Atletico Madrid team news
Midfielder Pablo Barrios has been ruled out of both legs after sustaining a hamstring injury on his return to the side at the weekend.
Ademola Lookman, Jose Gimenez and David Hancko are all doubts for the hosts.
Arsenal team news
Eberechi Eze, Arsenal’s matchwinner against Newcastle at the weekend, was withdrawn after 53 minutes of that narrow 1-0 victory with a muscle injury but should be okay to feature again.
Kai Havertz lasted just over 30 minutes of the Newcastle game before being taken off and must be a major doubt. Viktor Gyokeres looks all set to step in.
Atletico Madrid v Arsenal odds
Arsenal are narrow 13/8 favourites to win the match and put themselves in prime position for the second leg on home soil. Atleti are 7/4 to win while a draw on the night is 11/5.
The Gunners are clear favourites to make the final and trade at just 1/2 in the ‘To Qualify’ market. Atletico are 13/8 to go through.
In the outright tournament betting, Arsenal are 9/4 second favourites behind 7/4 Bayern Munich. PSG are 5/2 to retain the trophy while Atletico Madrid are the 7/1 outsiders.
Atletico Madrid v Arsenal prediction
Arsenal showed some welcome positive intent in defeat against Manchester City before rather going back into their shell in the narrow 1-0 win over Newcastle.
In other words, given the final scorelines, Arteta has every reason to resort to type and play the percentages here.
That means defensive solidity first and having only beaten Sporting 1-0 over two legs in the quarter-finals, the Gunners boss would absolutely take a repeat here.
The fascinating twist is that Atleti are not the defensive unit they once were. Their games are now riddled with goals and a more open game will suit them.
Arsenal aren’t in the sort of form they were when hammering the Spaniards at the Emirates but they remain hard to beat.
Taking everything into account, the 1-1 scoreline at 11/2 appeals most. It keeps the tie in the balance and Atleti are still very capable of going to Arsenal in the second leg and winning.